Table 3: Posterior summaries for the assumed models.
Model |
|
Mean |
SD |
Lower 95% |
Upper 95% |
M1 |
βo |
8.932 |
0.02269 |
8.8860 |
8.9740 |
|
β1 |
0.0008 |
0.00085 |
- 0.00073 |
0.002499 |
|
β2 |
- 0.000019 |
0.0000089 |
- 0.000037 |
- 0.000004 |
|
β3 |
0.00000008 |
0.000000027 |
0.00000003 |
0.00000013 |
|
μ |
- 5.058 |
0.6944 |
- 5.5500 |
- 2.7900 |
|
ϕ1 |
0.1775 |
0.1411 |
0.005846 |
0.5415 |
|
ϕ2 |
0.3424 |
0.2518 |
0.01661 |
0.9020 |
|
ζ |
4.251 |
1.575 |
1.8620 |
8.1220 |
M2 |
βo |
0.06851 |
0.001675 |
0.06574 |
0.07243 |
|
β1 |
-0.000002 |
0.00006 |
-0.000138 |
0.000103 |
|
β2 |
0.0000043 |
0.00000061 |
0.0000032 |
0.0000057 |
|
β3 |
- 0.00000002 |
0.000000002 |
- 0.00000001 |
- 0.00000001 |
|
μ |
- 4.259 |
1.036 |
- 6.3700 |
- 2.2760 |
|
ϕ1 |
0.6631 |
0.1781 |
0.3372 |
0.9741 |
|
ϕ2 |
0.3359 |
0.1778 |
0.02611 |
0.6653 |
|
ζ |
2.168 |
0.8817 |
1.001 |
4.358 |
M3 |
βo |
0.637 |
0.004801 |
0.6281 |
0.6477 |
|
β1 |
0.001195 |
0.000151 |
0.000857 |
0.000289 |
|
β2 |
-0.0000099 |
0.00000142 |
-0.000012 |
-0.0000068 |
|
β3 |
0.00000002 |
0.000000004 |
0.000000014 |
0.00000003 |
|
μ |
-4.203 |
1.044 |
-6.115 |
-2.182 |
|
ϕ1 |
0.6546 |
0.2077 |
0.252 |
0.9783 |
|
ϕ2 |
0.3427 |
0.2079 |
0.0218 |
0.7514 |
|
ζ |
2.324 |
0.8576 |
1.076 |
4.418 |
M4 |
βo |
0.08113 |
0.00176 |
0.07796 |
0.08485 |
|
β1 |
0.000243 |
0.0000622 |
0.000102 |
0.000357 |
|
β2 |
-0.0000036 |
0.0000006 |
-0.0000046 |
-0.0000022 |
|
β3 |
0.00000001 |
0.000000002 |
0.000000007 |
0.000000014 |
|
μ |
-4.359 |
0.9985 |
-6.237 |
-2.372 |
|
ϕ1 |
0.6784 |
0.1938 |
0.3097 |
0.9825 |
|
ϕ2 |
0.3219 |
0.1943 |
0.01728 |
0.6966 |
|
ζ |
2.552 |
0.8985 |
1.172 |
4.655 |