Table 3: Examples of in silico models for mutagenicity.
Model |
Example |
Design |
Knowledge-
or rule-based Structure-activity relationship (SAR) |
Toxtree (public model) |
Toxtree includes modules for mutagenicity, carcinogenicity,
and the in vivo micronucleus assay Serafimova [55] The model includes a decision tree for assessment of
mutagenicity and carcinogenicity potential by discriminant analysis and
structural rules Benigni [62] The model also
includes a decision tree for the in
vivo micronucleus assay. The accuracy of prediction is 70% for
carcinogenicity, 78% for mutagenicity and 59% for the in vivo micronucleus assay. |
Derek
Nexus (Commercial model) |
This
(rule-based) model contains structural alerts for mutagenicity, chromosome
damage and carcinogenicity. The hazard assessment is justified with
literature references. Advantages are the transparency in predictions, the
rule development is peer-reviewed by a user group, and new rules can be added
easily. The absence of a predicted hazard simply means that no relevant
alerts were identified; it does not necessarily mean the absence of hazard Serafimova [55]. |
|
Quantitative
or statically based Structure-activity relationship (QSAR) |
CASE
Ultra (Commercial model) |
This
model applies a statistical approach that automatically identifies molecular
substructures that have a high probability of being relevant to the observed
endpoint. Genotoxicity models include Ames mutagenicity, direct mutagenicity,
base-pair mutagenicity, frameshift mutagenicity, chromosomal aberrations,
mouse micronucleus assay, mouse sister chromosomal exchange. Carcinogenicity
models include rat, mouse, female, male carcinogenicity, TD50 rat, mouse
carcinogenicity Serafimova [55]. |
VEGA
(Public model) |
A
statistical model for mutagenicity that was originally developed in the frame
of the EU CAESAR project. The authors reported correct classification rates
of 92.3% and 83.2% for the training and test sets, respectively. The model
was combined with Toxtree, showing that the number
of false negatives could be reduced, but the number of the false positives
increased. The
authors concluded that by using the so-called “cascade model”, a
classification accuracy close to the reliability of the Ames test data could
be achieved Serafimova [55]. In
the same project, two complementary approaches (regression and
classification) were applied to develop models for carcinogenicity and an
accuracy of classification of 91-96% for the training set and 68-74% for the
test set was reported Serafimova [55]. |