Table 3: Posterior summaries for the assumed models.

Model

 

Mean

SD

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

M1

βo

8.932

0.02269

8.8860

8.9740

 

β1

0.0008

0.00085

- 0.00073

0.002499

 

β2

- 0.000019

0.0000089

- 0.000037

- 0.000004

 

β3

0.00000008

0.000000027

0.00000003

0.00000013

 

μ

- 5.058

0.6944

- 5.5500

- 2.7900

 

ϕ1

0.1775

0.1411

0.005846

0.5415

 

ϕ2

0.3424

0.2518

0.01661

0.9020

 

ζ

4.251

1.575

1.8620

8.1220

M2

βo

0.06851

0.001675

0.06574

0.07243

 

β1

-0.000002

0.00006

-0.000138

0.000103

 

β2

0.0000043

0.00000061

0.0000032

0.0000057

 

β3

- 0.00000002

0.000000002

- 0.00000001

 - 0.00000001

 

μ

- 4.259

1.036

- 6.3700

- 2.2760

 

ϕ1

0.6631

0.1781

0.3372

0.9741

 

ϕ2

0.3359

0.1778

0.02611

0.6653

 

ζ

2.168

0.8817

1.001

4.358

M3

βo

0.637

0.004801

0.6281

0.6477

 

β1

0.001195

0.000151

0.000857

0.000289

 

β2

-0.0000099

0.00000142

-0.000012

-0.0000068

 

β3

0.00000002

0.000000004

0.000000014

0.00000003

 

μ

-4.203

1.044

-6.115

-2.182

 

ϕ1

0.6546

0.2077

0.252

0.9783

 

ϕ2

0.3427

0.2079

0.0218

0.7514

 

ζ

2.324

0.8576

1.076

4.418

M4

βo

0.08113

0.00176

0.07796

0.08485

 

β1

0.000243

0.0000622

0.000102

0.000357

 

β2

-0.0000036

0.0000006

-0.0000046

-0.0000022

 

β3

0.00000001

0.000000002

0.000000007

0.000000014

 

μ

-4.359

0.9985

-6.237

-2.372

 

ϕ1

0.6784

0.1938

0.3097

0.9825

 

ϕ2

0.3219

0.1943

0.01728

0.6966

 

ζ

2.552

0.8985

1.172

4.655