Table 2: Estimated effects of vodka sales on IHD mortality rates, ARIMA analysis.
vodka sales on IHD mortality rates, ARIMA analysis. | Females | |||||||
age | model | estimates | SE | P | model | estimates | SE | p |
15-29 | 0,1,1 | 0,118 | 0,036 | 0,003 | 0,1,1 | 0.102 | 0,044 | 0,300 |
30-44 | 0,1,1 | 0,098 | 0,090 | 0,000 | 0,1,1 | 0,132 | 0,030 | 0,000 |
45-59 | 0,1,0 | 0,081 | 0,020 | 0,000 | 0,1,0 | 0,082 | 0,023 | 0,000 |
60-74 | 0,1,0 | 0,059 | 0,015 | 0,001 | 0,1,0 | 0,042 | 0,014 | 0,006 |
75+ | 0,1,0 | 0,033 | 0,016 | 0,005 | 0,1,0 | 0,023 | 0,015 | 0,132 |
The general form of non-seasonal ARIMA model is (p,d,q), where p - the order of the autoregressive parameter, d – the order of differencing, and q – the order of the moving average parameter. Q test for residuals are satisfactory in all models.