Table 2: Estimated effects of vodka sales on IHD mortality rates, ARIMA analysis.

vodka sales on IHD mortality rates, ARIMA analysis. Females
age model estimates SE P model estimates SE p
15-29 0,1,1 0,118 0,036 0,003 0,1,1 0.102 0,044 0,300
30-44 0,1,1 0,098 0,090 0,000 0,1,1 0,132 0,030 0,000
45-59 0,1,0 0,081 0,020 0,000 0,1,0 0,082 0,023 0,000
60-74 0,1,0 0,059 0,015 0,001 0,1,0 0,042 0,014 0,006
75+ 0,1,0 0,033 0,016 0,005 0,1,0 0,023 0,015 0,132

The general form of non-seasonal ARIMA model is (p,d,q), where p - the order of the autoregressive parameter, d the order of differencing, and q the order of the moving average parameter. Q test for residuals are satisfactory in all models.