Table 1: Frequency and category of independent variables with Bivariable and Multivariable logistic regression analysis for the forecasting of malaria outbreak at Amhara region, Ethiopia, 2022.

Variables

Category

Number

(%)

Malaria outbreak

Bivariable analysis

Multivariable analysis

Yes

No

Β

95 % CI

 P value

Original β (95 % CI)

Bootstrap β

P-value

Simplified Risk score

Rainfall (mm)

RF < 98.18

1199

49

445

1990

1

1

RF > = 98.18

1249

51

11

2

3.203

(5.4-111.35)

< 0.001*

2.913 (4.189,100.55)

1.461

< 0.0001

63.5

Relative humidity (%)

RH < 52.67

2443

99.8

187

884

1  

 

 

 

 

HR > = 52.67

5

0.2

269

1108

0.138

(0.122-9.796)         

0.29

 

 

 

 

Wind speed (m/s)

WS < 2.14                              

1224

50

456

1992

1

 

 

 

 

WS > = 2.14

1224

50

456

1992

- 0.022

(0.798-1.20)

0.836

 

 

 

 

Sunshine

SH < 7.17

1525

62.3

445

1981

1 

1

SH > = 7.17

923

37.7

11

11

1.493

(1.918-10.33)

< 0.001*

1.467 (1.621-9.146)

1.408

< 0.001

61

Irrigation

Absent

2080

85

409

1671

 1

1

Present

368

15

47

321

-0.512

(0.433-0.829)

< 0.001*

-1.106 (1.161-2.420)       

0.418

< 0.0001

18

Migration

Absent

2080

85

409

1671

1

 

 

 

 

Present

368

15

47

321

-0.512

(0.433-0.829)

< 0.001*

 

 

 

 

Altitude

Dega

864

35.3

165

699

1 

 

 

 

 

Woynadega

720

29.4

147

573

0.089

(0.853-1.402)

0.481

 

 

 

 

Kolla

864

35.3

144

720

-0.158

(0.67-1.093)

0.209

 

 

 

 

Month

Summer

612

25.0

 

131

 

481

1

 

 

 

 

Spring

612

25.0

99

513

-0.2027

(0.595-1.049)  

0.175

 

 

 

 

Winter

612

25.0

109

503

-0.094

(0.567-1.147)

0.542

 

 

 

 

Outman

612

25.0

117

495

-0.87

(0.687-1.224)      

0.917

 

 

 

 

Minimum Temperature (°C)

      

0

456

1

 

 

 

 
     

0

1992

-0.03

(0.951-0.991)

< 0.001

 

 

 

 

Maximum Temperature (°C)

      

0

456

1

 

 

 

 
     

0

1992

-0.003

(0.982-1.023)

0.024

- 0.041(0.942, 0.990)

- 0.023

< 0.001

1

Bold with* = Nominated variable to multivariable logistic regression analysis at a p-value of < 0.25; Reference category is indicated by bold number 1; *Simplified risk score: Obtained by dividing the bootstrapped coefficients of predictors included in the reduced model by the smallest boot strapped coefficient (0.023); Minimum and maximum temperature = continues variable that was included in the study