Table 2: Malaria outbreak forecast models in, Amhara region, Ethiopia, 2022.
Models |
Variable |
Β |
95% CI |
2 Log likelihood |
Model 1 |
Irrigation area |
-1.092 |
1.161-2.42 |
-2262.439 |
Minimum temperature (°C) |
-0.041 |
0.956-0.997 |
|
|
Rainfall (mm) |
2.913 |
2.913-5.755 |
141.326 |
|
Sunshine |
1.467 |
1.711-9.791 |
|
|
Model Lag 1 |
Rainfall (mm) |
1.067 |
1.445-5.85 |
-2325.497 |
Sunshine |
-1.067 |
0.19-0.628 |
|
|
Model Lag 2 |
Rainfall (mm) |
1.058 |
1.423-5.837 |
-2342.813 |
Model 2 |
Minimum temperature (°C) |
-0.041 |
0.934-0.983 |
|
Rainfall (mm) |
2.913 |
4.189-141.326 |
|
|
Sunshine |
1.467 |
1.776-10.582 |
|