Table 2: Malaria outbreak forecast models in, Amhara region, Ethiopia, 2022.

Models

Variable

Β

95% CI

2 Log likelihood

Model 1

Irrigation area           

-1.092

1.161-2.42

-2262.439

Minimum temperature (°C)   

-0.041

0.956-0.997

 

 Rainfall (mm)    

2.913

2.913-5.755

141.326

Sunshine   

1.467

1.711-9.791

 

Model Lag 1

Rainfall (mm)

1.067

1.445-5.85

-2325.497

 Sunshine

-1.067

0.19-0.628

 

Model Lag 2

Rainfall (mm)

1.058

1.423-5.837

-2342.813

Model 2

Minimum temperature (°C)

-0.041

0.934-0.983

 

Rainfall (mm)

2.913

4.189-141.326

 

 Sunshine

1.467

1.776-10.582